How would the loss of Syrian bases affect Russia's military capabilities in the Mediterranean?

The loss of Syrian bases would be catastrophic for Russia's military strategy. Without the Tartus naval base, Russia would lose its only Mediterranean port, eliminating its ability to freely operate warships and submarines in the region. This is especially critical because Turkey has invoked the Montreux Convention during the Ukraine war, preventing Russia from moving warships between the Black Sea and Mediterranean. Without these bases, Russia would lack facilities for resupply and replenishment, severely limiting its capacity to maintain a naval presence or credibly threaten NATO forces in the Mediterranean Sea.